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IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF ENSO ON LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA
作者姓名:杜予罡  宋金杰  汤剑平
作者单位:Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China;Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China;Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China
基金项目:National Natural Science Foundation of China (41105036, 41105035, 40730948, 40830958, 40921160382); National Grand Fundamental Research “973” Program of China (2009CB421502)
摘    要:Interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in China during 1960-2010 is investigated.By using the method of partial least squares regression(PLS-regression),canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki are identified to be the factors that contribute to the interannual variability of landfalling TCs.El Ni o Modoki years are associated with a greater-than-average frequency of landfalling TCs in China,but reversed in canonical El Ni o years.Significant difference in genesis locations of landfalling TCs in China for the two kinds of El Ni o phases occurs dominantly in the northern tropical western North Pacific(WNP).The patterns of low-level circulation anomalies and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) anomalies associated with landfalling TC genesis with different types of El Ni o phases are examined.During canonical El Ni o years,a broad zonal band of positive OLR anomalies dominates the tropical WNP,while the circulation anomalies exhibit a meridionally symmetrical dipole pattern with an anticyclonic anomaly in the subtropics and a cyclonic anomaly near the tropics.In El Ni o Modoki years,a vast region of negative OLR anomalies,roughly to the south of 25°N with a strong large-scale cyclonic anomaly over the tropical WNP,provides a more favorable condition for landfalling TC genesis compared to its counterpart during canonical El Ni o years.For more landfalling TCs formed in the northern tropical WNP in El Ni o Modoki years,there are more TCs making landfall on the northern coast of China in El Ni o Modoki years than in canonical El Ni o years.The number of landfalling TCs is slightly above normal in canonical La Ni a years.Enhanced convection is found in the South China Sea(SCS) and the west of the tropical WNP,which results in landfalling TCs forming more westward in canonical La Ni a years.During La Ni a Modoki years,the landfalling TC frequency are below normal,owing to an unfavorable condition for TC genesis persisting in a broad zonal band from 5°N to 25°N.Since the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) in La Ni a Modoki years is located in the westernmost region,TCs mainly make landfall on the south coast of China.

关 键 词:landfalling  tropical  cyclone  interannual  variability  canonical  ENSO  ENSO  Modoki  PLS-regression
收稿时间:2011/9/30 0:00:00
修稿时间:2012/10/19 0:00:00

IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF ENSO ON LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA
DU Yu-gang,SONG Jin-jie and TANG Jian-ping.IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF ENSO ON LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2013,19(1):39-48.
Authors:DU Yu-gang  SONG Jin-jie and TANG Jian-ping
Affiliation:Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China;Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China;Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China
Abstract:Interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in China during 1960-2010 is investigated. By using the method of partial least squares regression (PLS-regression), canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki are identified to be the factors that contribute to the interannual variability of landfalling TCs. El Niño Modoki years are associated with a greater-than-average frequency of landfalling TCs in China, but reversed in canonical El Niño years. Significant difference in genesis locations of landfalling TCs in China for the two kinds of El Niño phases occurs dominantly in the northern tropical western North Pacific (WNP). The patterns of low-level circulation anomalies and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies associated with landfalling TC genesis with different types of El Niño phases are examined. During canonical El Niño years, a broad zonal band of positive OLR anomalies dominates the tropical WNP, while the circulation anomalies exhibit a meridionally symmetrical dipole pattern with an anticyclonic anomaly in the subtropics and a cyclonic anomaly near the tropics. In El Niño Modoki years, a vast region of negative OLR anomalies, roughly to the south of 25°N with a strong large-scale cyclonic anomaly over the tropical WNP, provides a more favorable condition for landfalling TC genesis compared to its counterpart during canonical El Niño years. For more landfalling TCs formed in the northern tropical WNP in El Niño Modoki years, there are more TCs making landfall on the northern coast of China in El Niño Modoki years than in canonical El Niño years. The number of landfalling TCs is slightly above normal in canonical La Niña years. Enhanced convection is found in the South China Sea (SCS) and the west of the tropical WNP, which results in landfalling TCs forming more westward in canonical La Niña years. During La Niña Modoki years, the landfalling TC frequency are below normal, owing to an unfavorable condition for TC genesis persisting in a broad zonal band from 5°N to 25°N. Since the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in La Niña Modoki years is located in the westernmost region, TCs mainly make landfall on the south coast of China.
Keywords:landfalling tropical cyclone  interannual variability  canonical ENSO  ENSO Modoki  PLS-regression
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