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Statistical analysis on temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity
作者姓名:裴韬  周成虎  李全林  陈锦标
作者单位:ZHOU Cheng-hu1) LI Quan-lin2) CHEN Jin-biao2) 1) Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China 2) Institute of Geophysics,China Seismological Bureau,Beijing 100081,China
基金项目:Innovation Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences
摘    要:Introduction Being the important evidence of seismic trend prediction, the characters of spatial-temporal distribution of strong earthquakes can, to some extent, reflect the gestation mechanism and the migration law of strong quakes. From temporal point of view, a number of scholars consider the occurrence of strong earthquakes as the independent events, i.e., Poisson process. Based on this assumption, various predicted models are brought forward, such as stationary Poisson model, subsection …

收稿时间:22 November 2000
修稿时间:28 November 2001

Statistical analysis on temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity
Pei Tao , Zhou Cheng-hu , Li Quan-lin and Chen Jin-biao.Statistical analysis on temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2002,15(1):56-62.
Authors:Pei Tao  Zhou Cheng-hu  Li Quan-lin and Chen Jin-biao
Affiliation:1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:In order to unify the time and the space attributes into temporal-spatial distance, the temporal-spatial proportional coefficient fTS is proposed in this paper. In accordance with the new distance concept, the temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity since AD 1500 has been analyzed. The computation results indicate that doublets of strong earthquake can be divided into two groups when fTS is endowed with 10 km/a in the new distance formula. The temporal-spatial distance between two points of doublet generally cannot exceed 140 km when two strong quakes in doublet have some causative relation. And those doublets with temporal-spatial distance exceeding 280 km are probably independent seismic events in doublets. This character can be the reference to the migration law summarization and trend prediction.
Keywords:North China and its vicinity  temporal doublets of strong earthquake  temporal-spatial distance
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