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基于复合泊松过程战略石油储备天数的概率模型及其应用
引用本文:孙天晴.基于复合泊松过程战略石油储备天数的概率模型及其应用[J].数理统计与管理,2007,26(5):852-857.
作者姓名:孙天晴
作者单位:上海理工大学动力学院,上海,200093
摘    要:为了明确国家或地区战略石油储备天数,在分析世界发生石油生产中断的历史数据的基础上,建立了战略石油储备天数的复合泊松过程的概率模型。把模型计算结果与国际能源机构确定的经合组织石油储备天数的标准及其实际石油储备数据进行对比分析,发现该模型具有相当的合理性,可以作为指导国家或地区进行战略石油储备的理论依据。

关 键 词:复合泊松过程  战略石油储备  概率模型
文章编号:1002-1566(2007)05-0852-06
修稿时间:2006-12-10

Probability Model and Its Application of Strategic Oil Storage Based on Complex Poisson Process
SUN Tian-qing.Probability Model and Its Application of Strategic Oil Storage Based on Complex Poisson Process[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2007,26(5):852-857.
Authors:SUN Tian-qing
Affiliation:College of Power Engineering, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology Shanghai 200093, China
Abstract:To achieve the strategic oil storage days for nation or region,according to analyze the historic data of oil discontinuity,this paper established the probability model of oil discontinuity days based on complex Poisson process.Contrasting the calculating result to the oil storage days decided by lEA and the actual oil storage days in OPEC,we find out that the probability model is in reason considerably.And it can be regarded as the theory to guide strategic oil storage for nation or region.
Keywords:complex poisson processing  strategic oil storage  probability model
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