Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Charles Obled  Guillaume Bontron  Rmy Garon 《Atmospheric Research》2002,63(3-4)

Medium-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) up to several days ahead are required to issue early flood warnings and to allow optimum operation of hydraulic structures or reservoirs. This paper describes an approach which can be seen as an adaptation of deterministic meteorological model outputs. It involves searching for a sample of past situations similar to the current one from a long meteorological archive. The analogy is considered in terms of general circulation patterns over a window covering western Europe. For this restricted sample of days similar to the day at hand, the corresponding sample of observed daily precipitation is extracted for each catchment. The rainfall to be observed during the current day is assumed to follow the same distribution, known from this empirical sample. This provides a probabilistic forecast expressed, for example, by a central quantile and a confidence range. This paper describes the many choices underlying the optimisation of this approach: choice of predictor variables to characterise a meteorological situation, choice of similarity criterion between two situations, criterion for performance evaluation between two versions of the algorithm, etc. This method was calibrated over about 50 catchments located in France, Italy and Spain, using a meteorological and hydrological archive running from 1953 to 1996. Comparisons carried out over a validation sample (1995–1996) with three poor-man methods prove the interest of this approach, in a perfect prognosis context. In real-time operation, the use of forecast instead of observed predictor variables, essentially geopotential fields, produces only a minor decrease in performance. The use of the single-valued central quantile supplemented by the confidence interval provided a QPF that has proved effective and informative on the potential for extreme values.  相似文献   

鹤壁市地质灾害预报预警系统   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

靳冰凌  周官辉  郭魁英  孙日丁  牛红伟  芦阿咪 《河南气象》2005,(2):23-24

分析了鹤壁市地质灾害时空分布特征及造成地质灾害的天气条件，采用5日滚动累加法，判定地质灾害降水类型，提出当日强降水型和前期强降水型与鹤壁市地质灾害的关系；集本地人工神经网络降水量预报和上级指导产品做诱发地质灾害的短期降水预报，并利用卫星云图、雷达、闪电定位仪等探测手段建立鹤壁市地质灾害预报预警系统。  相似文献   

短期集合预报中定量降水预报集合方法初探   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

陈力强  周小珊  杨森 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(4):543-548

针对短期集合预报中集合平均等方法对极端天气事件预报能力低下的缺陷，提出一种定量降水预报集合方法，简称两步法。该方法首先采用逐级归并法确定集合成员的总体相似度，进而确定集合成员预报场的延伸半径，对各成员的预报场进行修正，然后根据每个成员与其他成员的相似程度，确定各成员的权重系数。这个方法既考虑了集合成员总体的差异性又考虑了降水的概率分布。试验证明，通过上述两步得到的定量降水预报，对提高极端天气事件的预报确率有一定效果。本方法无需历史资料，能很好适应集合成员的改变，实现方便快捷。  相似文献   

The Effects of the Thermal Anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Vicinities on Climate Variability in China          下载免费PDF全文

QIAN Yongfu  ZHANG Yan  HUANG Yanyan  HUANG Ying  YAO Yonghong 《大气科学进展》2004,21(3):369-381

The evident effects of the thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its vicinities are summarized and discussed in this paper. By the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique and numerical simulations of the effect of the snow depth anomaly over the TP, it is shown that the snow depth anomaly, especially in winter, is one of the factors influencing precipitation in China, and the winter snow anomaly is more important than the spring one. The relations between the sensible heat anomaly over the TP and the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) are studied, too, and two key areas of the sensible heat anomaly over the TP are found. The relationships between the South Asia High (SAH). and the precipitation in the years with typical droughts or floods in the mid to lower valleys of the Yangtze River (MLVYR) and North China are investigated in some detail. It is found that not only the intensity of the SAH over the TP, but also the 100-hPa height in a large area influences the precipitation in the above two regions. The effects of the SAH on the onsets of the tropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM) including the SCSSM and the tropical Indian summer monsoon (TISM) are studied as well. It is found that the onset times of both the SCSSM and the TISM are highly dependent upon the latitudinal position of the SAH center.  相似文献   

Possible Impacts of Barents Sea Ice on the Eurasian Atmospheric Circulation and the Rainfall of East China in the Beginning of Summer   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

WANG Ji  GUO Yufu 《大气科学进展》2004,21(4):662-674

Possible influences of the Barents Sea ice anomalies on the Eurasian atmospheric circulation and the East China precipitation distribution in the late spring and early summer (May-June) are investigated by analyzing the observational data and the output of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM).The study indicates that the sea ice condition of the Barents Sea from May to July may be interrelated with the atmospheric circulation of June. When there is more than average sea ice in the Barents Sea, the local geopotential height of the 500-hPa level will decrease, and the same height in the Lake Baikal and Okhotsk regions will increase and decrease respectively to form a wave-chain structure over North Eurasia.This kind of anomalous height pattern is beneficial to more precipitation in the south part of East China and less in the north.  相似文献   

Connections between Surface Sensible Heat Net Flux and Regional Summer Precipitation over China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

TANG Yanbing 《大气科学进展》2004,21(6):897-908

Using the observed monthly precipitation and NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)reanalysis surface flux data from 1951-2000, the connections between the seasonal SSHNF (Surface Sensible Heat Net Flux) over the Asian continent and the regional summer precipitation of China were examined.The patterns of collective and individual correlations were identified. The results indicate that the responseof the regional summer precipitation of China to the seasonal SSHNF over the study area varies according to region and season. The interannual variability of summer precipitation anomalies over Xinjiang, the northernmost Northeast China, and the North China Plain are most sensitive to the anomaly of the seasonal SSHNF. There are significant collective correlations between the interannual anomalies of the seasonal SSHNF and summer precipitation over these regions. In contrast, the Southeast Tibetan Plateau,Huaihe River Valley, and surrounding areas exhibit the least significant correlation. Significant individual correlations exist between the summer precipitation over the southernmost Northeast China, East Inner Mongolia, South of the Yangtze River and South China and the seasonal SSHNF in certain seasons over the following areas: near Lake Baikal and Lake Balkhash, near Da Hinggan Mountains and Xiao Hinggan Mountains, as well as the Tibetan Plateau.  相似文献   

The Structure and Rainfall Features of Tropical Cyclone Rammasun （2002）   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

MA Leiming  DUAN Yihong  ZHU Yongti 《大气科学进展》2004,21(6):951-963

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data [TRMM Microwave Imager/Precipitation Radar/Visible and Infrared Scanner (TMI/PR/VIRS)] and a numerical model are used to investigate the structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rammasun (2002). Based on the analysisof TRMM data, which are diagnosed together with NCEP/AVN [Aviation (global model)] analysis data,some typical features of TC structure and rainfall are preliminary discovered. Since the limitations of TRMM data are considered for their time resolution and coverage, the world observed by TRMM at several moments cannot be taken as the representation of the whole period of the TC lifecycle, therefore the picture should be reproduced by a numerical model of high quality. To better understand the structure and rainfall features of TC Rammasun, a numerical simulation is carried out with mesoscale model MM5 in which the validations have been made with the data of TRMM and NCEP/AVN analysis.  相似文献   

Variations of δ18O in Precipitation along Vapor Transport Paths          下载免费PDF全文

ZHANG Xinping  LIU Jingmiao  TIAN Lide  HE Yuanqing  YAO Tandong 《大气科学进展》2004,21(4):562-572

Three sampling cross sections along the south path starting from the Tropics through the vapor passage in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the middle-low reaches of the Yangtze River, the north path from West China, via North China, to Japan under the westerlies, and the plateau path from South Asia over the Himalayas to the northern Tibetan Plateau, are set up, based on the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)/WMO global survey network and sampling sites on the Tibetan Plateau. The variations, and the relationship with precipitation and temperature, of the δ18O in precipitation along the three cross sections are analyzed and compared. Along the south path, the seasonal differences of mean δ18O in precipitation are small at the stations located in the Tropics, but increase markedly from Bangkok towards the north, with the δ18O in the rainy season smaller than inthe dry season. The δ18O values in precipitation fluctuate on the whole, which shows that there are different vapor sources. Along the north path, the seasonal differences of the mean δ18O in precipitation for the stations in the west of Zhengzhou are all greater than in the east of Zhengzhou. During the cold half of the year, the mean δ18O in precipitation reaches its minimum at Urumqi with the lowest temperature due to the wide, cold high pressure over Mongolia, then increases gradually with longitude, and remains at roughly the same level at the stations eastward from Zhengzhou. During the warm half of the year, the δ18O values in precipitation are lower in the east than in the west, markedly influenced by the summer monsoon over East Asia. Along the plateau path, the mean δ18O values in precipitation in the rainy season are correspondingly high in the southern parts of the Indian subcontinent, and then decrease gradually with latitude. A sharp depletion of the stable isotopic compositions in precipitation takes place due to the very strong rainout of the stable isotopic compositions in vapor in the process of lifting over the southern slope of the Himalayas. The low level of the δ18O in precipitation is from Nyalam to the Tanggula Mountains during the rainy season,but δ18O increases persistently with increasing latitude from the Tanggula Mountains to the northern Tibetan Plateau because of the replenishment of vapor with relatively heavy stable isotopic compositions originating from the inner plateau. During the dry season, the mean δ18O values in precipitation basically decrease along the path from the south to the north. Generally, the mean δ18O in precipitation during the rainy season is lower than in the dry season for the regions controlled by the monsoons over South Asia or the plateau, and opposite for the regions without a monsoon or with a weak monsoon.  相似文献   

TRMM测雨雷达对1998年东亚降水季节性特征的研究   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13       下载免费PDF全文

FU Yunfei  LIN Yihu  Guosheng LIU  WANG Qiang 《大气科学进展》2003,20(4):511-529

利用热带测雨计划卫星上的测雨雷达得到的降水资料,对1998年东亚降水,特别是中国大陆东部、东海和南海的降水,进行了分析研究,并对比了热带降水研究结果。年统计结果表明,东亚地区层状云降水出现概率极高(比面积达83.7％),对流云降水的比面积仅占13.6％,然而两者对总降水量的贡献相当。结果还表明,暖对流云降水出现的比例和对总降水量的贡献很小。在季节尺度,对流云和层状云降水的比与两者的面积比成比例关系。除夏季外,测雨雷达降水量与GPCP降水量可比性好。研究结果还指出:在中纬度陆地和海洋上对流云和层状云的比降水量和比面积呈相反方向作季节性南北移动,这一活动与东亚季风变化一致;该地区降水的季节性变化还表现为降水垂直廓线的变化。除冬季外,南海地区降水垂直结构呈热带特征。CRAD分析表明,对流云降水的地面雨强变化大,尤其在陆地上,而层状云多表现为地面弱降水。  相似文献   

A Case Study of the Improvement of Soil Moisture Initialization in IAP-PSSCA   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

GUO Weidong  WANG Huijun 《大气科学进展》2003,20(5):845-848

A prediction system is employed to investigate the potential use of a soil moisture initialization scheme in seasonal precipitation prediction through a case study of severe floods in 1998. The results show that driving the model with reasonable initial soil moisture distribution is helpful for precipitation prediction,and the initialization scheme is easy to use in operational prediction.  相似文献