内蒙古典型农牧交错区作物优化布局决策分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

白美兰  郝润全  侯琼 《气象科技》2006,34(4):460-464

利用线性规划方法,以赤峰地区的巴林左旗为例,分析了内蒙古典型农牧交错区在各种干旱年型以及干旱年型未定的情况下,农作物的最优种植方案。并将此优化方案结果与实际作物种植情况进行效益分析评价,以验证此方案的增产效益,降低种植风险。结果表明:使用确定型或随机型优化方案,实际产量均有明显增产,并且确定型优化方案的增产效益高于随机型方案。但由于受到长期天气预报技术水平的限制,有时未来的干旱年型难以准确判定,此时使用随机型方案,粮食作物增产效益稳定,风险性低。  相似文献   

Spatial Variability of Turbulent Fluxes in the Roughness Sublayer of an Even-Aged Pine Forest     

Gabriel Katul  Cheng-I Hsieh  David Bowling  Kenneth Clark  Narasinha Shurpali  Andrew Turnipseed  John Albertson  Kevin Tu  Dave Hollinger  Bob Evans  Brian Offerle  Dean Anderson  David Ellsworth  Chris Vogel  Ram Oren 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,93(1):1-28

The spatial variability of turbulent flow statistics in the roughness sublayer (RSL) of a uniform even-aged 14 m (= h) tall loblolly pine forest was investigated experimentally. Using seven existing walkup towers at this stand, high frequency velocity, temperature, water vapour and carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at 15.5 m above the ground surface from October 6 to 10 in 1997. These seven towers were separated by at least 100m from each other. The objective of this study was to examine whether single tower turbulence statistics measurements represent the flow properties of RSL turbulence above a uniform even-aged managed loblolly pine forest as a best-case scenario for natural forested ecosystems. From the intensive space-time series measurements, it was demonstrated that standard deviations of longitudinal and vertical velocities (_u, _w) and temperature (_T) are more planar homogeneous than their vertical flux of momentum (u_* ²) and sensible heat (H) counterparts. Also, the measured H is more horizontally homogeneous when compared to fluxes of other scalar entities such as CO₂ and water vapour. While the spatial variability in fluxes was significant (>15 %), this unique data set confirmed that single tower measurements represent the canonical structure of single-point RSL turbulence statistics, especially flux-variance relationships. Implications to extending the moving-equilibrium hypothesis for RSL flows are discussed. The spatial variability in all RSL flow variables was not constant in time and varied strongly with spatially averaged friction velocity u_*, especially when u_* was small. It is shown that flow properties derived from two-point temporal statistics such as correlation functions are more sensitive to local variability in leaf area density when compared to single point flow statistics. Specifically, that the local relationship between the reciprocal of the vertical velocity integral time scale (I_w) and the arrival frequency of organized structures (/h) predicted from a mixing-layer theory exhibited dependence on the local leaf area index. The broader implications of these findings to the measurement and modelling of RSL flows are also discussed.  相似文献   

Modelling Internal Boundary-Layer Development in a Region with a Complex Coastline     

Ekaterina Batchvarova  Xiaoming Cai  Sven-Erik Gryning  Douw Steyn 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,90(1):1-20

The purpose of this paper is to test the ability of two quite different models to simulate the combined spatial and temporal variability of the internal boundary layer in an area of complex terrain and coastline during one day. The simple applied slab model of Gryning and Batchvarova, and the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (CSU-RAMS) are tested by comparison with data gathered during a field study (called Pacific '93) of photochemical pollution in the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia, Canada. The data utilised here are drawn from tethered balloon flights, free flying balloon ascents, and downlooking lidar operated from an aircraft flown at roughly 3500 m above sea level. Both models are found to represent the temporal and spatial development of the internal boundary-layer depth over the Lower Fraser Valley very well, and reproduce many of the finer details revealed by the measurements.  相似文献   

The KABEG’97 field experiment: An aircraft-based study of katabatic wind dynamics over the Greenland ice sheet     

Günther Heinemann 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,93(1):75-116

The aircraft-based experiment KABEG97 (Katabatic wind and boundary-layer front experiment around Greenland) was performed in April/May 1997. During the experiment, surface stations were installed at five positions on the ice sheet and in the tundra near Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland. A total of nine katabatic wind flights were performed during quite different synoptic situations and surface conditions, and low-level jets with wind speeds up to 25m s^-1 were measured under strong synoptic forcing of the katabatic wind system. The KABEG data represent a unique data set for the investigation of katabatic winds. For the first time, high-resolution and accurate aircraft measurements can be used to investigate the three-dimensional structure of the katabatic wind system for a variety of synoptic situations.Surface station data show that a pronounced daily cycle of the near-surface wind is present for almost all days due to the nighttime development of the katabatic wind. In a detailed case study the stably-stratified boundary layer over the ice and the complex boundary-layer structure in the transition zone ice/tundra are investigated. The katabatic wind system is found to extend about 10 km over the tundra area and is associated with strong wind convergence and gravity waves. The investigation of the boundary-layer dynamics using the concept of a two-layer katabatic wind model yields the results that the katabatic flow is always a shooting flow and that the pure katabatic force is the main driving mechanism for the flow regime, although a considerable influence of the large-scale synoptic forcing is found as well.  相似文献   

Glacio-Meteorological Investigations On Vatnaj?kull, Iceland, Summer 1996: An Overview     

J. Oerlemans  H. Björnsson  M. Kuhn  F. Obleitner  F. Palsson  C.J.P.P. Smeets  H. F. Vugts  J. De Wolde 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,92(1):3-24

We give an overview of a glacio-meteorological experiment carried out in the summer (melt season) of 1996 on the largest European ice cap, Vatnajökull, Iceland (area 8000 km²; altitude range: from sea level to about 2000 m). The main goal was to understand how the energy used in the melting of snow and ice is delivered to the surface. Many meteorological stations were operated simultaneously on the ice cap, at almost all of which profile measurements were made. Cable balloons and radiosondes were used to probe the vertical structure of the boundary layer. It appears that the flow near the surface is katabatic most of the time, with the height of the wind maximum varying between a few metres and a few tens of metres. It is only during the passage of intense storms that the katabatic wind in the melt zone disappears. Global radiation increases significantly with altitude. Surface albedo varies enormously in space and time, with very low values ( 0.1) being found at many places because of the melt out of volcanic ash layers. If we consider the total melt in the period 22 May–31 August 1996, we conclude that radiation typically provides two-thirds of the melt energy, and turbulent exchange of heat one-third. At locations high on the glacier, turbulent exchange becomes less significant.  相似文献   

An Observational Study of Wind Profiles in the Baroclinic Convective Mixed Layer     

Margaret a. Lemone  Mingyu Zhou  Chin-Hoh Moeng  Donald H. Lenschow  L. Jay Miller  Robert L. Grossman 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,90(1):47-82

A comprehensive planetary boundary-layer (PBL) and synoptic data set is used to isolate the mechanisms that determine the vertical shear of the horizontal wind in the convective mixed layer. To do this, we compare a fair-weather convective PBL with no vertical shear through the mixed layer (10 March 1992), with a day with substantial vertical shear in the north-south wind component (27 February). The approach involves evaluating the terms of the budget equations for the two components of the vertical shear of the horizontal wind; namely: the time-rate-of-change or time-tendency term, differential advection, the Coriolis terms (a thermal wind term and a shear term), and the second derivative of the vertical transport of horizontal momentum with respect to height (turbulent-transport term). The data, gathered during the 1992 STorm-scale Operational and Research Meteorology (STORM) Fronts Experiments Systems Test (FEST) field experiment, are from gust-probe aircraft horizontal legs and soundings, 915-MHz wind profilers, a 5-cm Doppler radar, radiosondes, and surface Portable Automated Mesonet (PAM) stations in a roughly 50 × 50 km boundary-layer array in north-eastern Kansas, nested in a mesoscale-to-synoptic array of radiosondes and surface data.We present evidence that the shear on 27 February is related to the rapid growth of the convective boundary layer. Computing the shear budget over a fixed depth (the final depth of the mixed layer), we find that the time-tendency term dominates, reflecting entrainment of high-shear air from above the boundary layer. We suggest that shear within the mixed layer occurs when the time-tendency term is sufficiently large that the shear-reduction terms – namely the turbulent-transport term and differential advection terms – cannot compensate. In contrast, the tendency term is small for the slowly-growing PBL of 10 March, resulting in a balance between the Coriolis terms and the turbulent-transport term. Thus, the thermal wind appears to influence mixed-layer shear only indirectly, through its role in determining the entrained shear.  相似文献   

A Two-Regime Model For The Probability Density Function Of The Temperature Structure Parameter In The Convective Boundary Layer     

I. V. Petenko  E. A. Shurygin 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,93(3):381-394

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On A Low Cloud Phenomenon At The Breidamerkurj?kull Glacier, Iceland     

Rudolf Kaltenböck  Friedrich Obleitner 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,92(1):145-162

An impressive cloud wall has frequently been observed on the southern slopes of the Vatnajökull ice sheet, which is located in south-eastern Iceland. Its optical and dynamic features suggest a delicate balance of the atmospheric agents involved. This has been confirmed by a thorough analysis of a well documented event and by statistics covering a whole summer season. As an exemplary event, the regional development of the associated cloud has basically been documented with synchronous surface data along a suitable transect of the glacier. Data from tethered balloons, radiosoundings and routine synoptic data have also been exploited extensively. Cloud development was generally aided by a high moisture potential because of proximity to the open seas and the remnants of a frontal system. Furthermore the occurrence of the cloud phenomenon was associated with onshore (southerly) surface winds, assisting advection and lifting of the associated air masses above the slopes of the ice sheet. Northward protrusion of the associated cloud was apparently opposed by continuous katabatic winds and topographically induced lee effects.  相似文献   

Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Modeling     

Simon Shackley  James Risbey  Peter Stone  Brian Wynne 《Climatic change》1999,43(2):413-454

This paper surveys and interprets the attitudes of scientists to the use of flux adjustments in climate projections with coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models. The survey is based largely on the responses of 19 climate modellers to several questions and a discussion document circulated in 1995. We interpret the responses in terms of the following factors: the implicit assumptions which scientists hold about how the environmental policy process deals with scientific uncertainty over human-related global warming; the different scientific styles that exist in climate research; and the influence of organisations, institutions, and policy upon research agendas. We find evidence that scientists' perceptions of the policy process do play a role in shaping their scientific practices. In particular, many of our respondents expressed a preference for keeping discussion of the issue of flux adjustments within the climate modeling community, apparently fearing that climate contrarians would exploit the issue in the public domain. While this may be true, we point to the risk that such an approach may backfire. We also identify assumptions and cultural commitments lying at a deeper level which play at least as important a role as perceptions of the policy process in shaping scientific practices. This leads us to identify two groups of scientists, pragmatists and purists, who have different implicit standards for model adequacy, and correspondingly are or are not willing to use flux adjustments.  相似文献   

National Inventories of Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks: The U.K. Experience     

M. G. R. Cannell  R. Milne  K. J. Hargreaves  T. A. W. Brown  M. M. Cruickshank  R. I. Bradley  T. Spencer  D. Hope  M. F. Billett  W. N. Adger  S. Subak 《Climatic change》1999,42(3):505-530

The U.K. has extensive databases on soils, land cover and historic land use change which have made it possible to construct a comprehensive inventory of the principal terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon for approximately the year 1990, using methods that are consistent with, and at least as accurate as, the revised 1996 guidelines recommended by IPCC where available – and including categories which are not currently considered under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This country inventory highlights issues concerning methodology, uncertainty, double counting, the importance of soils and the relative magnitude of sources and sinks which are reported to the UNFCCC relative to other sources and sinks. The carbon sinks (negative values in MtC a^-1) for categories reported to the UNFCCC, based on the IPCC categories, were estimated to be: forest trees and litter (–2.1), U.K. forest products (–0.5, ignoring imports and exports), non-forest biomass (–0.3), forest soils (–0.1) and soils on set-aside land (–0.4). The carbon sources (positive values) reported under the UNFCCC were estimated to be: losses of soil organic carbon resulting from cultivation of semi-natural land (6.2) and from urbanization (1.6), drainage of peatlands (0.3) and fenlands (0.5), and peat extraction (0.2). A range of other sources and sinks not covered by the IPCC guidelines were also quantified, namely, the accumulation of carbon in undrained peatlands (–0.7, ignoring methane emission), sediment accretion in coastal marshes (–0.1), the possible U.K. share of the CO₂ and N fertilization carbon sink (–2.0) and riverine organic and particulate carbon export to the sea (1.4, which may be assumed to be a source if most of this carbon is released as CO₂ in the sea). All sinks totalled –6.2 and sources 10.2, giving a net flux to the atmosphere in 1990 of 4.0 MtC a^-1. Uncertainties associated with categories, mostly based on best guesses, ranged from ±15% for forest biomass and litter to ±60% for CO₂ and N fertilization.  相似文献