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1.
回顾了近年来在中国科学院大气物理研究所开展的有关短期气候预测研究的进展。第一个短期气候数值预测是曾庆存等利用一个耦合了热带太平洋海洋环流模式的全球大气环流模式作出的。1997年,一个基于海气耦合模式的ENSO预测系统,包括一个海洋初始化方案被建立起来,同时也开展了基于海温异常的东亚气候可预测性研究。利用气候变动的准两年信号,王会军等提出了一个可以显著改进模式预测准确率的模式结果修正方案。为了考虑土壤湿度的初始异常对夏季气候的影响,一个利用大气资料如温度、降水等经验地反演土壤湿度的方法也被建立起来。还通过一系列的数值试验研究了 1998年夏季大水发生当中海温异常和大气环流初始异常的作用。  相似文献   

2.
大气初始异常在跨季度短期气候预测中作用的研究   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
针对大气初始异常在跨季度短期气候预测中的可能作用,利用中国科学院大气物理研究所9层大气环流格点模式(简称IAP 9L-AGCM)对全球夏季气候进行了30年(1970~1999年)集合回报试验,系统地考察了基于大气初始异常条件下模式对跨季度短期气候异常的可预测性.结果表明,在热带、副热带及高纬都存在气候异常的可预测性区域,说明大气初始场异常本身对跨季度短期气候预测有很重要的影响.相对于全球来说,大气初始异常对跨季度短期气候预测的影响在东亚地区更为显著,其作用不可忽略.通过对典型年份的个例分析发现,在某些气候异常剧烈的特殊年份,春季大气初始异常在我国夏季气候形成中扮演着尤为重要的角色.  相似文献   

3.
我国短期气候动力预测模式系统的研究及试验   总被引:38,自引:5,他引:33  
气候和气候异常对我国的国民经济发展具有重大影响,为提高短期气候预测的准确率,研究动力气候模式短期气候预测新技术至关重要.通过近5年的努力,建立了一套出月动力延伸预报模式,海气耦合的全球气候模式(AGCM+OGCM+海冰+高分辨率印度洋-太平洋海盆模式),区域气候模式季和年际尺度的业务动力模式组成的系统.初步把我国的短期气候预测水平由经验统计方法提高到定量和客观分析的水平上.在此基础上,已建成了一个具有物理基础的统计方法与气候动力模式相结合的综合气候预报系统.  相似文献   

4.
对中国科学院大气物理研究所2006年的夏季(6-8月)降水预测进行检验,结果表明,110°E以东地区预报与实况大体上比较接近,重庆和四川的严重旱灾以及华南的严重洪涝灾害均未预报出来。另外分析了2006年夏季中国异常气候的特点。夏季风的季节内变化对夏季降水异常具有重要影响,而短期气候预测对夏季风季节内变化的预测还是一个难点。  相似文献   

5.
本文研究建立2015/2016年极强厄尔尼诺事件下我国动力和统计结合的气候预测模型,并开展2015年夏季和2016年冬季气候我国160个站点和主要区域实时气候预测。夏季降水的实时预测起报于2月,冬季气温的预测起报于10月。研究结果表明,尽管NCEP-CFSv2耦合气候模式能较好预测2015/2016年极强厄尔尼诺事件中海温异常的演变,但对我国160个站点夏季降水和冬季气温预测仍有较大的偏差。因此,基于NCEP-CFSv2耦合模式预测结果,分别建立我国160个站点冬季气温和夏季降水异常的动力和统计结合气候预测模型。同时,利用年际增量预测方法开展我国长江中下游夏季降水和华北冬季气温的区域气候预测。研究结果表明以上预测模型在2015/2016年的实时预测中较NCEP-CFSv2有更好的预测效能。相对于NCEP-CFSv2耦合模式的预测结果,2015年夏季降水距平空间相关系数ACC从0.21提高到0.31(超过0.01信度的显著性水平),距平同号率提高到60%,2016年冬季气温ACC从0.19提高到0.32(超过0.01信度的显著性水平),距平同号率提高到75%。  相似文献   

6.
土壤温湿异常对短期气候影响的数值模拟试验   总被引:24,自引:10,他引:24  
王万秋 《大气科学》1991,15(5):115-123
本文介绍了用IAP气候模式进行关于土壤温度异常和土壤湿度异常的敏感性试验研究,异常区域都取在中国范围内。其中关于土壤温度异常的影响,我们进行了初值异常和固定异常两种试验,而对土壤湿度异常的影响则进行了初始异常的试验。结果表明,土壤温度的初始异常一天以后基本消失,而固定的土壤温度异常和土壤湿度的初始异常对短期(一个月左右)气候有明显影响。土壤温度的影响主要在异常区内及其南部相邻区域,土壤湿度异常的影响则可以以长波波列形式向外传播到很远距离处。  相似文献   

7.
土壤湿度初始异常对东亚区域气候模拟影响的敏感性试验   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用耦合了CLM3.5陆面模式的区域气候模式RegCM4.0,通过敏感性试验,探讨了人为减小春季初始土壤体积水含量对短期时间尺度东亚夏季气候模拟的可能影响。结果表明:较低的初始土壤湿度场能够明显改变区域的地表能量平衡,引起地表净长波辐射和感热通量的显著增加,进而加强了地表对大气的加热,因而引起东亚大范围地区特别是中国东部、印度北部和中亚地区地表温度、气温的升高。与气温不同,初始土壤湿度场对降水的影响很小而且有较大的不确定性,同时偏暖的下垫面使得对流层中高层出现暖高压异常,但这些影响均不显著。综合来看,土壤湿度初始场的初始异常,对RegCM4.0 模式东亚气候模拟的结果有一定影响,特别是在地表温度、气温和能量平衡方面,应在以后的模拟中加以考虑。  相似文献   

8.
许炳南 《高原气象》2002,21(6):628-631
对贵州夏季严重旱涝的短期气候预测因子进行了分析研究,确定了用东亚大槽和北美东岸大槽的异常配置建立的夏季旱涝预测信号等5个预测因子,并依据这些预测指标建立了贵州旱涝短期气候预测模型。预测模型经1997-2000年实际检验取得了较好的预报效果。  相似文献   

9.
针对中国南方极端气候事件成因,本研究综合考虑高温、少雨和干燥三种极端事件,将其异常同时超出1959—2022年间1倍年际标准差定义为干热少雨复合事件,通过合成分析和相似环流-动力调整方法,研究了春季土壤湿度对夏季干热少雨复合事件的影响及物理机制,进一步对2022年夏季南方极端干热少雨复合事件开展深入分析。结果表明:1)中国南方地区春季土壤湿度与夏季气候局地耦合的热点与2022年夏季气温、降水和相对湿度的变率高值区基本吻合;2)春季长江流域及黄淮地区土壤偏干,且东南地区偏湿时,夏季出现干热少雨复合极端事件概率加大;3)春季土壤湿度通过调节局地蒸散和净辐射能量的分配影响夏季气候变率。本研究对改善干热少雨复合事件的预测具有重要参考价值。  相似文献   

10.
2004年夏季短期气候集成预测及检验   总被引:4,自引:4,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
分析了2004年夏季东亚大气环流的主要特点及对我国天气与气候的影响.对可能影响2004年夏季中国降水的主要物理因子及其演变的判断基本正确.跨季度预测指出2004年夏季我国大范围严重洪涝事件的可能性不大,6~8月主雨带可能位于黄河中下游与淮河之间;并较好地预测了影响我国的台风数.对2004年夏季跨季度气候预测中存在的问题进行了初步讨论,以便改进和完善中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统.  相似文献   

11.
1999年中国夏季气候的预测和检验   总被引:35,自引:6,他引:29  
利用改进的中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统(IAPPSSCA),结合IAPENSO预测系统所预测的1999年热带太平洋地区的海温异常,对1999年中国夏季气候进行了适时集合预测。预测结果表明:IAPPSSCA较好地预测出了1999年夏季北半球大尺度环流场的异常情况,并较好地预测出1999年中国南涝北旱的大范围降水形势。IAPPSSCA对长江下游的强降水中心、中国南方大部夏季多雨的特征以及中国北方大部的干旱少雨形势的预测,与实测较相符。但IAPPSSCA预测的南方大范围雨带的北界比实测的略为偏北,北方的小范围的降水正距平区域也没有能预报出来。另外,对于月平均降水距平的预测亦存在较大的不确定性。这说明我们的预测系统还有待于进一步的改进和完善。  相似文献   

12.
Recent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly,the second generation of the IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-II) has been described,and two sets of hindcast experiments of the summer rainfall anomalies over China for the periods of 1980-1994 with different versions of the IAP AGCM have been conducted. The comparison results show that the predictive skill of summer rainfall anomalies over China is improved with the improved IAP AGCM in which the surface albedo parameterization is modified. Furthermore, IAP DCP-II has been applied to the real-time prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China since 1998, and the verification results show that IAP DCP-II can quite well capture the large scale patterns of the summer flood/drought situations over China during the last five years (1998-2002). Meanwhile, an investigation has demonstrated the importance of the atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal climate prediction, along with studies on the influences from surface boundary conditions (e.g., land surface characteristics, sea surface temperature).Certain conclusions have been reached, such as, the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring may play an important role in the summer climate anomalies, and soil moisture anomalies in spring can also have a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies over East Asia. Finally, several practical techniques(e.g., ensemble technique, correction method, etc.), which lead to the increase of the prediction skill for summer rainfall anomalies over China, have also been illustrated. The paper concludes with a list of criticalre quirements needed for the further improvement of dynamical seasonal climate prediction.  相似文献   

13.
Studies on the seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in recent years were reviewed. The first short-term climate prediction experiment was carried out based on the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a tropical Pacific oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In 1997, an ENSO prediction system including an oceanic initialization scheme was set up. At the same time, researches on the SST-induced climate predictability over East Asia were made. Based on the biennial signal in the interannual climate variability, an effective method was proposed for correcting the model predicted results recently. In order to consider the impacts of the initial soil mois ture anomalies, an empirical scheme was designed to compute the soil moisture by use of the atmospheric quantities like temperature, precipitation, and so on. Sets of prediction experiments were carried out to study the impacts of SST and the initial atmospheric conditions on the flood occurring over China in 1998.  相似文献   

14.
中国冬季积雪特征及欧亚大陆积雪对中国气候影响   总被引:7,自引:3,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
该文首先回顾了有关中国冬季积雪的研究进展,包括中国冬季积雪的空间分布气候特征以及季节、年际和年代际变化,中国冬季降雪特征,气象因子对中国冬季积雪水量平衡的影响,外强迫和大气环流系统在积雪形成中的作用等。冬春季欧亚大陆积雪对同期和后期中国气候影响的相关研究说明与欧亚大陆积雪异常相关联的中国气候异常以及积雪通过改变土壤湿度、表面温度和辐射分布,引起大气环流异常,进而对中国气候产生影响的物理过程。应用美国环境预测中心 (NCEP) 第2版气候预测系统 (CFSv2) 的回报试验结果,对CFSv2在欧亚大陆积雪变化及其与中国气候关系的可预报性方面的分析表明,CFSv2能够较好地回报出春季欧亚积雪的年际和年代际变异及其与中国夏季降水之间的联系。文章最后提出了在积雪及其气候效应研究方面一些有待解决的问题。  相似文献   

15.
应用IAP9L-AGCM对2002年中国夏季气候的预测及效果检验   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10  
利用中科院大气所9层大气环流格点模式(IAP9L—AGCM)和IAP—ENSO预测系统对2002年中国夏季气候进行实时集合预测及其检验。结果显示,IAP9L—AGCM较好地预测出了2002年夏季我国大范围旱涝的分布形势,如华南、我国西部多雨,黄河和长江流域之间大范围干旱等;850hPa减弱的夏季风、青藏高原辐散中心以及北太平洋上空的异常气旋性环流中心亦被较好地预报出来;不足的是,模式对降水异常细致分布的预测能力有限。预测结果还表明,该模式对夏季(6—8月)平均降水的预报技巧要高于月平均状况,且月平均预报的准确度从6—8月依次递减。  相似文献   

16.
跨季度动力气候预测系统IAP DCP-II   总被引:13,自引:4,他引:13       下载免费PDF全文
概述中国科学院大气物理研究所研制的跨季度动力气候预测系统(IAP DCP-II),及其在我国夏季降水距平预测业务中的应用情况.该系统的试用始于1988年,1998年定型为现今版本(即IAP DCP-II).1998年起至今,每年预测的检验说明,该系统有较好的跨季度预测能力,能预报出夏季降水距平的大范围分布形势.  相似文献   

17.
Using the regional climate model RegCM4.4.5, coupled with the land model CLM4.5, we investigated the effects of springtime soil moisture in the Indochina Peninsula on summer precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas in 1999. Results have indicated that there exists positive correlation between soil moisture and summer precipitation over the western Pacific Ocean and negative correlation between soil moisture and summer precipitation over the eastern Indian Ocean. Summer precipitation in the South China Sea and its surrounding areas responds to springtime soil moisture in the Indochina Peninsula (the northwest region is critical) because general atmospheric circulation is sensitive to the near-surface thermodynamic state. Increased (decreased) soil moisture would result in decreased (increased) local surface temperatures. Latitudinal, small-scale land–sea thermal differences would then result in northeasterly wind (southwesterly wind) anomalies in the upper layer and southwesterly wind (northeasterly wind) anomalies in the lower layer, which strengthen (weaken) monsoon development. As a result, precipitation would enter the Western Pacific region earlier (later), and water vapor over the eastern Indian Ocean would enter the South China Sea earlier (later), causing a precipitation reduction (increase) in the eastern Indian Ocean and increase (reduction) in the Western Pacific.  相似文献   

18.
China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons.More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction of summer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.The predictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research.The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000.The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model over China named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and a simplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became the operational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC).Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which were the AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAP APOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held in March 2001.The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain belt over Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valley reasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001.The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certain capability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall over China.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictions provided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the single model.It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.The further investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved.  相似文献   

19.
China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons.More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction ofsummer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surfacetemperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.Thepredictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research.The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000.The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupledatmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model overChina named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and asimplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became theoperational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC).Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which werethe AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAPAPOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held inMarch 2001.The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain beltover Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valleyreasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over thecentral and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001.The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certaincapability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall overChina.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictionsprovided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the singlemodel.It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.Thefurther investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved.  相似文献   

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