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洞庭湖区域雷暴大风分型及预报分析研究
引用本文:蔡荣辉,姚蓉,黄小玉,唐明晖,王青霞,彭洁.洞庭湖区域雷暴大风分型及预报分析研究[J].气象,2017,43(5):560-572.
作者姓名:蔡荣辉  姚蓉  黄小玉  唐明晖  王青霞  彭洁
作者单位:湖南省气象台,长沙 400110,湖南省气象台,长沙 400110,国家气象中心,北京 100081,湖南省气象台,长沙 400110,湖南省气象台,长沙 400110,湖南省岳阳市气象局,岳阳 414000
基金项目:中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015M40)、湖南省气象局重点项目(XQKJ16A003)和中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160210)共同资助
摘    要:文章选取2013-2015年洞庭湖区域的15次雷暴大风天气过程,根据天气形势配置将其分为以下4类:低层暖平流强迫类、斜压锋生类、准正压类及高层冷平流强迫类。其中低层暖平流强迫类根据中低层切变线北侧冷平流的强弱又可以分为:强冷暖平流强迫类、强暖平流强迫类和中间类。总结归纳各类雷暴大风过程开始前、影响阶段及过程结束的天气形势配置、雷达回波特征与预报着眼点,为短期、短时天气预报预警提供参考。

关 键 词:洞庭湖雷暴大风  形势配置  分型预报
收稿时间:2016/1/8 0:00:00
修稿时间:2017/2/24 0:00:00

Synoptic Situation Classification and Forecast Analysis of Thunderstorm in Dongting Lake
CAI Ronghui,YAO Rong,HUANG Xiaoyu,TANG Minghui,WANG Qingxia and PENG Jie.Synoptic Situation Classification and Forecast Analysis of Thunderstorm in Dongting Lake[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,43(5):560-572.
Authors:CAI Ronghui  YAO Rong  HUANG Xiaoyu  TANG Minghui  WANG Qingxia and PENG Jie
Affiliation:Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 400110,Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 400110,National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081,Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 400110,Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 400110 and Yueyang Meteorological Office of Hunan, Yueyang 414000
Abstract:Based on the synoptic environment analysis of 15 thunderstorm cases in the area of Dongting Lake from 2013 to 2015, the weather situation can be divided into the following categories: low level warm advection forcing category, baroclinic frontogenesis category, quasi barotropic category and upper cold advection forcing category. According to the strength of cold advection in the north of low level shear line, the low level warm advection forcing category can also be classified into strong cold and warm advection forcing, strong warm advection forcing and middle category. Summarizing the synoptic situation configuration characteristics of thunderstorms in different stages, the radar echo characteristics and the forecast focus could offer references for short range, short time and nowcasting weather forecasts.
Keywords:thunderstorm in Dongting Lake  synoptic situation configuration  classified circulation pattern forecast
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